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Some leading investors have been talking up the odds of a new worldwide recession. But others are less pessimistic: generally that means, the economists. Take the IMF's top experts, for example. They say we can expect 3 and a half percent global growth this year, and the OECD and World Bank's forecasters are almost as sanguine. They foresee 2.9 per cent growth. But can we really trust these people? The investment bank Morgan Stanley doesn't seem to think so. According to its research, the world's club of leading economists are almost always wrong when it comes to predicting serious economic problems. Ruchir Sharma its head of emerging markets and a global strategist led the study and explains why.

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